Finance-Theory ยท Unit 1 ยท Video 1 ยท Interactive Practice
| Formula | Name | What you need |
|---|---|---|
| The defining equation | Nothing fixed โ the mathematics scales to the problem | |
| Growth multiple (GE revenue, 1981 โ 2001) | Two revenue figures, both in $ billions | |
| Absolute change (GE headcount, 1981 โ 1986) | Two employment figures | |
| Percentage change | The change and the starting value |
Key Insight: The level of mathematics is chosen by the problem, not by the subject โ Simons came to markets from differential geometry, Buffett with arithmetic on a balance sheet, and both ends are finance.
Three fortunes, one subject: how much mathematics does finance actually demand?
Welch ran a company of 400,000 people on arithmetic.
๐ก Over Welch's first five years the same ledger ran the other arithmetic: 400,000 employees became 300,000 โ a difference, not a ratio, and the reason for the nickname "Neutron Jack".
Every transaction is funds moving between four components โ sometimes across the system's boundary.
Problem 1 ยท The Growth Multiple
Given: GE's annual revenues were about $26 billion when Welch became chief executive in 1981 and about $130 billion at the end of his tenure in 2001 โ by what multiple did revenues grow?
A multiple is a ratio of the ending value to the starting value. With both revenues in $ billions:
Revenues finished at five times their 1981 level.
The difference answers a different question โ how many $ billions of revenue were added โ and the reciprocal answers a third: 1981 revenue was one fifth of 2001 revenue. All three are correct arithmetic; only one of them is the multiple.
Problem 2 ยท Percentage Against the Right Base
Given: GE employed 400,000 people in 1981; five years later the workforce stood at 300,000. Watch which figure you divide by.
How many jobs were eliminated?
What percentage of the 1981 workforce is that?
Step 1 โ the change.
Step 2 โ the percentage, always against the starting value.
The two common wrong bases both produce real numbers that answer other questions:
This is the whole toolkit Welch used on the job: a difference, a ratio, and care about which figure sits in the denominator.
Problem 3 ยท Placing a Transaction in the System
Given: Workers earn wages, pay part of them into a pension fund, and the fund buys bonds issued by a manufacturer; those bonds then trade on an exchange.
Which component is the pension fund?
Which part of this story sits OUTSIDE the financial system?
The pension fund is a financial intermediary. Intermediaries โ banks, insurers, pension funds โ stand between savers and borrowers: the workers hand over funds, the fund passes them to the manufacturer and holds the bond on the workers' behalf.
The other roles fill out the cast: the workers are households, the manufacturer is a nonfinancial corporation (it makes things; the bond issue is how it finances that), and the exchange is the capital market where the claim trades.
The labor market sits outside. Labor markets and product markets belong to the wider economy and have financial aspects, but they are not part of the financial system proper โ they sit outside the dashed boundary, joined to households and to corporations.
Problem 4 ยท One Theory, Four Components
Given: Financial analysis applies to all four components in exactly the same way. Moving from a corporation deciding whether to build a plant to a household deciding whether to buy a home, what changes?
Both decisions are the same problem: commit funds now in exchange for a stream of future benefits, and judge whether the future stream is worth the present outlay.
What differs is terminology and appearance. The corporation calls it capital budgeting, weighs a cost of capital, and writes the outlay on a balance sheet; the household calls it a down payment and a mortgage rate. The theory underneath is one theory, which is exactly why the four components are treated interchangeably in what follows.
The claim is easy to underrate. It means there is no second, simpler set of ideas reserved for the smaller case, and it is the reason for becoming familiar with all four components rather than only the one matching the job you expect to hold.
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