Finance-Theory Β· Unit 3 Β· Video 8 Β· Interactive Practice

The Annuity Discount Factor: Mortgage Payments and the Lottery 'Millionaire'

IKey Formulas

FormulaNameWhat it gives
PV=Crβˆ’Cr1(1+r)T\text{PV} = \dfrac{C}{r} - \dfrac{C}{r}\dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}Annuity present valueA perpetuity starting now, minus the perpetuity that takes over after date TT
ADF(r,T)≑1r[1βˆ’1(1+r)T]\text{ADF}(r,T) \equiv \dfrac{1}{r}\left[1 - \dfrac{1}{(1+r)^T}\right]Annuity discount factorToday's value of $1 a period for TT periods: one number, fixed by rr and TT alone
PV=CΓ—ADF(r,T)\text{PV} = C \times \text{ADF}(r,T)Value from a paymentThe lottery prize: multiply the payment by the factor
C=PVADF(r,T)C = \dfrac{\text{PV}}{\text{ADF}(r,T)}Payment from a valueThe mortgage payment: divide the loan by the factor

Key Insight: The factor separates the rate from the cash flow, leaving three quantities — PV\text{PV}, CC and ADF(r,T)\text{ADF}(r,T) — so any two of them give the third. And since 1/(1+r)T→01/(1+r)^T \to 0, the factor climbs toward 1/r1/r, the perpetuity factor, without ever reaching it.

IIOne Number per Rate and Term

Every entry is one number the payment multiplies: rows rise with the term, columns fall with the rate.

πŸ’‘ The printed rate books carried whole and half percents, so a rate such as 834%8\tfrac{3}{4}\% a year had no row at all. The table is computed from the formula, not the other way round, so any missing entry is one evaluation away.

IIIIs the Winner a Millionaire?

Twenty payments of $100,000 total $2,000,000, and today they are worth less than $1,000,000.

IVThe Mortgage Payment

Run the factor backwards: the loan divided by ADF(r,T)\text{ADF}(r,T) is the payment the bank asks each month.

VQuiz Questions

Problem 1 Β· Value of a Payment Stream

Given: a prize pays $20,000 a year for 10 years, the first payment one year from today, at r=8%r = 8\%, where ADF(8%,10)=6.71008\text{ADF}(8\%, 10) = 6.71008 β€” find the present value of the prize.

βœ… Correct! $20,000 Γ— 6.71008 = $134,201.60, so the prize is worth $134,202 today β€” about two-thirds of the $200,000 it pays out.
❌ That divides by the factor. Dividing turns a present value into a payment, which is the mortgage direction. Here the payment is known and the value is wanted, so multiply.
❌ $200,000 is what the prize pays out, not what it is worth. Ten payments arriving at ten different dates cannot simply be added; each is worth less than its face amount.
❌ $250,000 is C/rC/r β€” the value if the payments never stopped. Ten years is far short of forever: ADF(8%,10)=6.71008\text{ADF}(8\%,10) = 6.71008, well under the ceiling 1/r=12.51/r = 12.5.
Show solution

The payment is known and the value is wanted, so multiply:

PV=CΓ—ADF(r,T)=20,000Γ—6.71008=134,201.60\text{PV} = C \times \text{ADF}(r,T) = 20{,}000 \times 6.71008 = 134{,}201.60

The prize is worth $134,202 today. Two checks on the size of that number:

  • It must be below the undiscounted total, $200,000 β€” the discounting can only shrink each payment.
  • It must be below the perpetuity value C/r=20,000/0.08=250,000C/r = 20{,}000/0.08 = 250{,}000 β€” ten years of payments is worth less than payments that never stop.

Problem 2 Β· A Mortgage Payment

Given: a $300,000 mortgage with 30 years of monthly payments, quoted at 7.2% a year β€” so the rate per month is 0.6%0.6\% and ADF(0.006,360)=147.32136\text{ADF}(0.006, 360) = 147.32136 β€” find the monthly payment.

βœ… Correct! $300,000 Γ· 147.32136 = $2,036.36 a month. The period is the month, so the rate is the monthly rate and TT counts months.
❌ $833.33 is $300,000 ÷ 360. That is the payment if the bank charged no interest at all; it ignores the factor entirely.
❌ $1,800 is one month's interest, 0.006Γ—300,0000.006 \times 300{,}000. Paid forever it is the perpetuity payment C=PVΓ—rC = \text{PV} \times r and never repays a cent of principal; a 30-year mortgage must pay it off.
❌ That is a yearly payment split into twelfths. With ADF(7.2%,30)=12.16375\text{ADF}(7.2\%, 30) = 12.16375 the annual payment is $24,663.45, or $2,055.29 a month β€” but monthly payments are discounted monthly, so rr and TT must both be in months.
Show solution

The loan is the present value and the payment is wanted, so divide:

C=PVADF(r,T)=300,000147.32136=2,036.36C = \frac{\text{PV}}{\text{ADF}(r,T)} = \frac{300{,}000}{147.32136} = 2{,}036.36

The payments are monthly, so the period is the month: r=7.2%/12=0.6%r = 7.2\%/12 = 0.6\% per month and T=30Γ—12=360T = 30 \times 12 = 360 payments. Evaluating the factor directly,

ADF(0.006,360)=10.006[1βˆ’11.006360]=147.32136\text{ADF}(0.006, 360) = \frac{1}{0.006}\left[1 - \frac{1}{1.006^{360}}\right] = 147.32136

The answer is $2,036.36 a month. Working in years instead would give $2,055.29 β€” close enough to look right, and wrong.

Problem 3 Β· Millionaire or Not

Given: a lottery prize pays $60,000 a year for 25 years, the first payment one year from today, at r=8%r = 8\%, where ADF(8%,25)=10.67478\text{ADF}(8\%, 25) = 10.67478.

What is the prize worth today?

What would the prize be worth if the payments never stopped?

βœ… Correct! The 25 payments are worth $640,487; the same payments running forever would be worth $750,000. Twenty-five years already captures 85% of an infinite stream β€” and neither figure reaches a million.
❌ Check the present value. The payment is known, so multiply by the factor: $1,500,000 is the undiscounted total, $750,000 is C/rC/r, and $5,621 divides where it should multiply.
❌ Check the perpetuity. Payments forever are worth C/rC/r, not CΓ—rC \times r and not an unbounded amount: the discounting shrinks each payment fast enough for the sum to converge.
Show solution

Step 1 β€” the 25-year prize. Multiply the payment by the factor:

PV=60,000Γ—10.67478=640,486.80\text{PV} = 60{,}000 \times 10.67478 = 640{,}486.80

Step 2 — the same payments forever. As TT grows, 1/(1+r)T→01/(1+r)^T \to 0 and the factor climbs to its ceiling 1/r=12.51/r = 12.5:

PV∞=Cr=60,0000.08=750,000\text{PV}_\infty = \frac{C}{r} = \frac{60{,}000}{0.08} = 750{,}000

So the prize is worth $640,487, and $750,000 if it ran forever. The winner is not a millionaire on either count, even though the 25 payments add up to $1,500,000.

Problem 4 Β· How Much House?

Given: your budget is $1,500 a month for 360 months. At 0.5%0.5\% a month the factor is 166.79161166.79161, so you can borrow $250,187. The rate then rises to 0.75%0.75\% a month, where the factor is 124.28187124.28187 β€” find what the same $1,500 a month will borrow.

βœ… Correct! $1,500 Γ— 124.28187 = $186,423. A quarter of a point a month costs $63,764 of borrowing power on an unchanged budget.
❌ $540,000 is 1,500 Γ— 360. That adds 360 payments made at 360 different dates as though they were all made today.
❌ The budget is unchanged, but what it buys is not. Each dollar of monthly payment now supports less loan, because the factor fell from 166.79161 to 124.28187.
❌ That scales the loan by the ratio of the rates, 0.005/0.00750.005/0.0075. It would be right if the factor were exactly 1/r1/r, but the bracket 1βˆ’1/(1+r)T1 - 1/(1+r)^T rises with rr too, so the true fall is smaller.
Show solution

Here the payment and the factor are known, so multiply β€” the same direction as a lottery prize, read as a borrowing capacity:

PV=CΓ—ADF(r,T)=1,500Γ—124.28187=186,422.81\text{PV} = C \times \text{ADF}(r,T) = 1{,}500 \times 124.28187 = 186{,}422.81

The budget buys $186,423 of loan instead of $250,187, a fall of $63,764.

Why not the ratio of rates? The factor is 1r\tfrac{1}{r} only in the limit Tβ†’βˆžT \to \infty. Scaling the 0.5%0.5\% borrowing power by 0.005/0.00750.005/0.0075 assumes that limit and gives $166,792, which understates what you can borrow: over a finite 360 months the bracket 1βˆ’1/(1+r)T1 - 1/(1+r)^{T} is nearer to 1 at the higher rate (0.93210.9321 against 0.83400.8340), which offsets part of the fall in 1/r1/r.

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