How does a probability become a weighted average, and why is P(x > 1/2) under the arch y = 1 − x² only 5/32 rather than 1/4?
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Probability chosen by area
Define probability as part over whole and compute for the region under , checking it against .
The curve's height as the weight
Identify as the weight and redo the same interval with to get exactly .
General formula
Write with , show it is the weighted average of a function equal to on and elsewhere, and state that it always lies in .