If the O-ring erosion data scatter by a factor of two, what can a power-law curve fit through them honestly predict?
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Feynman's ice-water O-ring demonstration
Describe the clamped piece of O-ring rubber dropped into F ice water, and record the F pad reading and the roughly F estimate for the failed joint.
The failure chain from joint leak to fireball
Trace hot expanding gas escaping a booster joint like steam from a kettle, the flicker growing into a flame, the external tank rupturing, and the liquid hydrogen burning.
Empirical curve fitting versus physical understanding
Write down the erosion model's power law read off a logarithmic plot, the factor-of-two scatter of the data about the fitted curve, and what that scatter permits.
Uncertainty as part of the model
Record Feynman's rule that a model's uncertainties must be reported alongside its answer, together with the closing statement that nature cannot be fooled.