How can a handful of rough guesses estimate an answer to within a factor of ten?
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The order-of-magnitude standard of accuracy
State that a Fermi estimate counts as good when it lands within an order of magnitude, using the molecules in a breath and the to window as the yardstick.
The two-step estimation method
Write the procedure down: pick quantities you can already estimate, tie them to the target by an approximate relation, and check that relation's dimensions before computing.
Piano tuners and the kilometer of pennies
Chain Chicago's 3 million people through household size, piano ownership and tunings per year to about 100 tuners, then divide 1 km by a 2 cm penny for .
Ocean mass and Lao-Tzu's last breath
Model the oceans as a 1 km shell over of the Earth for kg, then combine and into .