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Finance Theory
Foundations of Finance
01Defining Finance and the Financial System02Valuation and Management: The Two Challenges03Stocks, Flows, and the Five Cash-Flow Decisions04Time, Risk, and the Six Principles of Finance05How to Learn Finance: Practice and Study HabitsProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
Present Value
01Information and Price: An Auction and Fannie Mae02Who Pays for the Fannie and Freddie Guarantee?03What Counts as an Asset: Patents, Secrets, Brands04An Asset as a Sequence of Dated Cashflows05The Value Operator and the Cashflow Timeline06Dates as Currencies: Building Net Present Value07Discount Factors: Market Prices for Future Dollars08A Worked Net Present Value and Its Assumptions09The Opportunity Cost of Capital and Present ValueProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/5
01Does the Currency Change an NPV's Sign?02Moral Hazard and Contagion: Where Bailouts Stop03The NPV Rule at Work, and Choosing the Rate04The Perpetuity: Why Cash Forever Is Worth C/r05Reading the Rate Off a Perpetuity's Price06The Growing Perpetuity, and When Growth Outruns r07Building the Annuity from Two Perpetuities08The Annuity Discount Factor and Mortgage Payments09APR, the Effective Annual Rate, and CompoundingProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/13
01Leverage: How a 10% Fall Becomes a 200% Loss02Who Absorbs the Loss: Walking Away, Rate Cuts, Bailouts03Last in Line: Chapter 11 and How Lehman's Equity Hit Zero04Inflation vs. Time Value: Wealth and the Price Index05Real Returns: Match the Discount Rate to the CashflowProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/7
Fixed-Income Securities
01Fixed Income: How Treasuries Overtook Mortgage Debt02Why Dealers Break When Everyone Sells: 1987 and 200803Pricing a Coupon Bond: Why It Trades at Par04Zero-Coupon Bonds, STRIPS, and the Forecast in a PriceProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/6
01Credit, Not Cost: Why the Fed Held Rates and Saved AIG02Spot Rates and the Term Structure from Strips Prices03Flight to Quality, and the Rates the Fed Cannot Set04Forward Rates: Locking In Next Year's Rate Today05Hedging with Forward Rates and Quoting a Forward Loan06Yield to Maturity: Many Spot Rates in One Number07Reading the Treasury Yield Curve: 1981 to 202608Yield Curve Theories and Pricing Bonds by ArbitrageProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/8
01Breaking the Buck: The Money-Fund Run into T-Bills02The Law of One Price: Same Cash Flows, Same Price03Why Arbitrage Needs Short Selling: The 2008 Ban04Fixed-Income Arbitrage: No Solution Means a Trade05Duration: How Far a Bond's Price Moves with Yield06Convexity: The Bend That Duration MissesProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/7
01September 2008: Rising Yields and Forced Bank Mergers02Default Risk and Credit Ratings: When Debt Acts Like Equity03The Credit Spread: Default Premium, Risk Premium, Securitization04Tranching: How Two Risky Bonds Make a Triple-A Claim05Correlated Defaults: How the Triple-A Tranche Broke06Where the Money Went: Ratings, Winners and TARPProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/1
Common Stock
01What a Share Is: Residual Claim, Limited Liability, Votes02Primary vs Secondary Markets: IPOs and Trading Volume03Deriving the Dividend Discount Model04The Market, Not the Company, Sets the Discount Rate05Backing Out a Discount Rate from an Auction Bid06The Gordon Growth Model and Why Prices Explode Near r = g07Cost of Capital: r = D/P + g08Multi-Stage Dividend Valuation and Dividend PolicyProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/7
Forwards and Futures
01Mark to Market, Currency Risk, and Why Firms Hedge02Should a Firm Hedge? Irrelevance vs Financial Distress03The Forward Contract: Forward Price, Spot Price, and Payoffs04Why a Forward Is Worth Zero at Signing, and What F Forecasts05Buy Forward or Buy Now and Store? Features of a Forward06Counterparty Risk: The Soybean Forward That Fails07From Forward to Futures: Settling Gains and Losses Daily08Clearing Houses and Margin Accounts: How Futures Stay SafeProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
01Marking to Market: Daily Settlement on a Futures Position02Futures vs Forwards: Credit Risk, Closing Out and Netting03Pricing a Forward by Replication: The Cost of Carry04Cost of Carry in Practice: Gold, Gasoline and Stock Indexes05A Synthetic Index Fund Built from S&P 500 Futures06Hedging 25% of a Portfolio with Short Index Futures07Futures Leverage, Margin Risk and What Prices RevealProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
Options
01Calls and Puts: The Right Without the Obligation02A Put Option Is Insurance on Your Stock03Option Payoff Diagrams: The Kink and the Premium04Writing Options and the Straddle: A Bet on Volatility05Call Spreads, Butterflies and the VIX06Equity Is a Call Option: Options in Capital Structure07Cardano to Bachelier: Fair Games, Random Walks and the Heat Equation08Black, Scholes and Merton: Why Option Prices Ignore Risk PreferencesProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
01The One-Period Binomial Model: Six Inputs to an Option Price02Replicating a Call With Stock and Bonds: Why p Drops Out03The Binomial Price as a Risk-Neutral Expectation04From the Binomial Tree to Black-Scholes05Calibrating u and d: Volatility Raises the Call's ValueProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
Risk and Return
01Returns, the Risk Premium, and Standard Deviation02Correlation, the Normal Curve, and Fat Tails03Randomness: The Signature of an Efficient Market04Real Rates and the Risk-Return Tradeoff, 1946–200105Stock Returns: Unpredictable Over Time, Correlated Across Stocks06Size, January, Value, Momentum: Anomalies Out of Sample07Why Most Mutual Funds Trail the IndexProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
Portfolio Theory
01Portfolio Weights, Short Sales and Buying on Margin02130/30 Funds, a Leveraged Home and Zero-Investment Portfolios03Why Hold a Portfolio? Diversification, Mean and Variance04The Risk-Return Graph: Why Investors Head NorthwestProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
01Portfolio Variance: Why Risk Lives in the Covariances02Two Stocks, One Covariance: The Risk-Return Bullet03Estimating Means and Covariances: How Much History?04How Correlation Bends the Bullet, from +1 to −105Mixing In T-Bills: A Straight Line and Leverage06Average Covariance, and Why Correlations Jump07The Limit of Diversification: Systematic Risk08Three Stocks, One Bullet: Long Horizons and EquilibriumProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
01Never Hold One Stock: Three-Stock Frontiers and Why Stocks Co-Move02The Tangency Portfolio: Why Every Investor Holds the Same Stocks03The Sharpe Ratio: Lending, Borrowing and the Steepest Line04The Stock Nobody Can Find: Negative Correlation and Alpha05Indifference Curves and the Four Conclusions of Portfolio TheoryProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
The CAPM
01Why Everyone's Fund Must Be the Market Portfolio02From the Capital Market Line to Beta and the CAPM03The Security Market Line: Betas of One, Zero and Below Zero04Portfolio Beta Is a Weighted Average: Microsoft vs Gillette05Alpha: Same Return, Same Volatility, Different Beta06Hedge Fund Alpha or Hidden Beta? Fund XYZ's 771 Basis Points07Systematic vs Idiosyncratic Risk: Why Only Beta Is Paid08Testing the CAPM: Is Alpha Zero? Biogen vs MotorolaProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/1
01Testing the CAPM with Portfolios: Size, Beta and a Flatter Line02Paid for Beta, Not Volatility: Multiple Factors and EquilibriumProblem set0/5Problem set 20/5
Capital Budgeting
01The NPV Rule and Investment Criteria for Capital Budgeting02Building Project Cash Flows: Cash, After Tax, Incremental03After-Tax Cash Flow and the Depreciation Tax Shield04Project Discount Rates: The Pure-Play Beta for Bloomberg Press05Synergies, Firm-Wide Cost of Capital and Moving Discount Rates06Oil Exploration: Two Risks, Two Discount RatesProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/2
01Payback and Discounted Payback: Flaws and Defensible Uses02The Profitability Index: Right Sign, Wrong Size03Scale and NPV: Why Firms Budget in Dollars, Not Returns04IRR as Yield to Maturity: Four Conditions, Loans and No IRR05Multiple IRRs, Scale and Timing: Why IRR Can't Rank Projects06What Firms Use: Survey Evidence and Six Capital Budgeting Rules07Descartes' Rule of Signs for IRR, and the Politics NPV Leaves OutProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
Efficient Markets
01Market Efficiency: How Stocks Found the Challenger Culprit02Behavioral Finance: Loss Aversion and Ambiguity Aversion03Risk Versus Uncertainty: Knight, Ellsberg and the Gorilla04The Dutch Book Theorem: Inconsistent Beliefs Create Arbitrage05Emotion and Rationality: Damasio's Patient and the Triune Brain06Stress and Decisions: Fear, Pain and Unstable Preferences07The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Efficiency Most of the TimeProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10
01Adaptive Markets: Why the Risk Premium Changes Over Time02Cycles of Efficiency: 130 Years of S&P Serial Correlation03Pain Protects: Profits as an Anesthetic, and the Case for Regulation04After 2008: Innovation, Evolution and Better Regulation05Course Summary I: Six Principles and Present Value Pricing06Course Summary II: Risk, the CAPM and When to Trust PricesProblem set0/10Problem set 20/10MIT problem set0/7

The Binomial Price as a Risk-Neutral Expectation

Why do the replication weights behave like probabilities, and how does any other call price hand someone a riskless money machine?


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Your summary note

    1. 1

      The risk-neutral probability p∗=r−du−dp^* = \frac{r-d}{u-d}p∗=u−dr−d​

      Rewrite the price as C0=1r[p∗Cu+(1−p∗)Cd]C_0 = \frac{1}{r}\left[p^*C_u + (1-p^*)C_d\right]C0​=r1​[p∗Cu​+(1−p∗)Cd​], show that the two weights sum to one, and record that p∗p^*p∗ is not the actual probability ppp.

    2. 2

      The equilibrium condition d<r<ud < r < ud<r<u

      State that the weights are non-negative exactly when d<r<ud < r < ud<r<u, record C0≥0C_0 \ge 0C0​≥0, and describe what happens to bonds if r<dr < dr<d and to the stock if r>ur > ur>u.

    3. 3

      The riskless profit when C0≠V0C_0 \neq V_0C0​=V0​

      For each case C0>V0C_0 > V_0C0​>V0​ and C0<V0C_0 < V_0C0​<V0​, write the trades made today, the cash received, and how the positions cancel tomorrow, using one illustrative mispricing as the example.

    4. 4

      Observed inputs versus assumed outcomes

      Record that S0S_0S0​ is the only market price in the model, while CuC_uCu​ and CdC_dCd​ are computed from the agreed values of uuu and ddd.

    Attempt 1 of 2