Why do the replication weights behave like probabilities, and how does any other call price hand someone a riskless money machine?
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The risk-neutral probability
Rewrite the price as , show that the two weights sum to one, and record that is not the actual probability .
The equilibrium condition
State that the weights are non-negative exactly when , record , and describe what happens to bonds if and to the stock if .
The riskless profit when
For each case and , write the trades made today, the cash received, and how the positions cancel tomorrow, using one illustrative mispricing as the example.
Observed inputs versus assumed outcomes
Record that is the only market price in the model, while and are computed from the agreed values of and .